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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and abduct its leader – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.